Modelo de la inflaci\'on en Costa Rica

Daniel Aguilar, Minor Acu\~na and Breyner Chac\'on

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: The stability of the inflation rate is a necessary condition for the proper functioning of any capitalist economy. In an economic environment with volatile inflation, the growth of the economy and its distribution among the agents of society is compromised. For this reason, and because in Costa Rica, as in most capitalist nations, the monetary authority is in charge of maintaining price stability, it is necessary to have models capable of predicting the behavior of inflation. on in the country. Along these lines, this work aims to compare two of the main types of basic predictive models found in the literature: univariate autoregressive models, exemplified by ARIMA models, and multivariate models formulated based on the theory. economics, like the Phillips curve.

Date: 2024-05
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