Minute-by-Minute: Financial Markets' Reaction to the 2020 U.S. Election

Matthew DeHaven, Hannah Firestone and Chris Webster

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We find striking correlations between the presidential election outcome probability and major financial indicators, including USD currency pairs, bond prices, stock index futures, and a market volatility measure. The correlations are consistent with 'risk-on' behavior in markets, a term which describes investors moving toward riskier asset classes, as the election results became clearer. Further, we decompose the market reaction into a 'reduction in uncertainty' component and a 'probability of a Democratic party presidency' component. This decomposition reveals how markets reacted to the increasing certainty of the outcome as election results came in. Finally, we analyze the differing market reactions to the presidential election and the Senate election, including data from the unique Georgia runoffs, and demonstrate that bond prices were particularly sensitive to the probability of a combined Democratic Senate and Presidency.

Date: 2024-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk, nep-ifn and nep-pol
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