Keynesian chaos revisited: odd period cycles and ergodic properties

Tomohiro Uchiyama

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: In this paper, we study two standard (Keynesian) dynamic macroeconomic models (one is piecewise linear and the other is nonlinear). Our purpose is twofold: (1)~For each model, we give a complete characterisation for the existence of a topological chaos (of the GDP levels), (2)~Even if a chaos exists, using ergodic theory, we show that it is possible to predict the future GDP levels "on average". This paper gives a new application of a celebrated result in ergodic theory by A. Avila (2014 fields medalist). We believe that our method/strategy in this paper is generic enough to be used to analyse many other (seemingly untractable) chaotic economic models.

Date: 2024-07
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