Using satellite imagery to map rural marketplaces and monitor their activity at high frequency

Tillmann von Carnap, Reza M. Asiyabi, Paul Dingus and Anna Tompsett
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Tillmann von Carnap: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, 0851, Norway
Reza M. Asiyabi: Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, 11350, Sweden
Paul Dingus: Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, 94305, United States of America

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Abstract: In many rural areas of low- and middle-income countries, weekly gatherings of buyers and sellers are the most tangible manifestation of the market economy. Knowing these markets' whereabouts and activity over time could provide insights in otherwise data-scarce environments, helping researchers and policymakers to better understand poor rural economies. But these markets are by nature informal and scattered widely across often-remote regions. As a result, data on this fundamental institution is sparse and inconsistent. We develop, test, and apply a method to fill this gap, leveraging market activity's unique temporal and visual signature in satellite imagery. Using secondary data from Kenya, Malawi, and Mozambique, we first confirm that we detect markets with high sensitivity and specificity. We then derive a map of 1,712 markets in Ethiopia and track their activity at up-to-weekly frequency between 2017 and 2024. Measured market activity exhibits seasonal patterns following local agricultural calendars and responds to weather and conflict shocks. Our approach requires no ground-truth data, is applicable wherever periodic markets exist, and can be fully automated to produce an up-to-weekly measure of economic conditions in areas where such data is otherwise generally not available.

Date: 2024-07, Revised 2025-08
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