Investor behavior and multiscale cross-correlations: Unveiling regime shifts in global financial markets

Marina Dolfin, George Kapetanios, Leone Leonida and Jose De Leon Miranda

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We propose an algorithm to capture emergent patterns in the cross-correlations of financial markets, highlighting regime changes on a global scale. In our approach, financial markets are viewed as complex adaptive systems, and multiscale properties and cross-correlations are considered, particularly during stress conditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, and Brexit. We investigate whether significant disruptions reflect an imbalance in investment horizons among investors, and we propose a measure based on this imbalance to depict the impact on global financial markets. The detrended cross-correlation cost (DCCC), which is derived from detrended cross-correlation analysis, uses cross-correlations at different timescales to capture variations in investment horizons amid financial uncertainties. Our algorithm, which combines DCCC analysis and the minimum-spanning-tree filtering approach, tracks system interconnectedness and investor imbalances. We tested the DCCC indicator using daily price series of G7, Russian, and Chinese markets over the past decade and found that it increases sharply during ``crash'' periods compared to ``business as usual'' periods. Our empirical results confirm that short-term investment horizons dominate during financial instabilities; this validates our hypothesis and indicates that the DCCC can serve as a leading indicator of shifts in financial-market regimes.

Date: 2024-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-ifn
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