Quantifying Seasonal Weather Risk in Indian Markets: Stochastic Model for Risk-Averse State-Specific Temperature Derivative Pricing

Soumil Hooda, Shubham Sharma and Kunal Bansal

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This technical report presents a stochastic model for pricing weather derivatives and devising hedging strategies tailored to Indian markets. We model temperature dynamics using a modified Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with jumps to account for sudden shocks, such as heatwaves and coldwaves. Historical data from 12 Indian states (1951-2023) is used for calibration, and Monte Carlo simulations are employed under the risk-neutral measure to price Heating Degree Days (HDD), Cooling Degree Days (CDD), and extreme event options. Sensitivity analysis reveals that a 20% increase in volatility leads to an approximate 4.2% increase in option prices, highlighting the critical impact of volatility on derivative pricing. Results show that HDD options in colder states like Himachal Pradesh are significantly more expensive, with prices reaching up to INR 684,693, while CDD options in hotter states like Gujarat are priced higher, up to INR 262,986. A comprehensive portfolio analysis indicates that investing INR 120,000 in HDD put options in Uttar Pradesh yields an expected payoff of INR 132,369, resulting in a return on investment (ROI) of 10.3%. Conversely, a similar investment in Karnataka yields a negative ROI of -66.7% due to its milder climate. Hedging strategies are tailored to each state's climatic risk, with recommendations to buy 90.66 HDD put options at a strike of 90.89 in Uttar Pradesh and invest in CDD call options in Gujarat. These insights offer practical solutions for managing temperature-related financial risk in energy and agriculture, providing actionable, state-specific hedging strategies for diverse climatic scenarios in India.

Date: 2024-09, Revised 2024-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-ipr and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.04541 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2409.04541

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators (help@arxiv.org).