Impact of the Three-Child Policy and Delayed Retirement on the Transfer of Surplus Rural Labor under Xi Jinping's New Population Vision: A Re-examination of China's Lewis Turning Point

Jun Dai, Guanqing Shi, Xiaoke Xie and Aitong Xie

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Abstract: Chinese-style modernization involves the modernization of a large population, requiring top-level design in terms of scale and structure. The population perspective in Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era serves as the fundamental guide for population policies. The three-child policy and delayed retirement will affect the supply of labor in China and challenge the previous assessments of China's Lewis Turning Point. This study examines the rural surplus labor transfer from 2013 to 2022 based on urban and rural data. The results indicate that China's overall wage levels have continuously increased, the urban-rural income gap has narrowed, and the transfer of surplus rural labor has slowed. China has passed the first turning point and entered a transitional phase. Factors such as the level of agricultural mechanization, urbanization rate, and urban-rural income gap are more significant in influencing the transfer of surplus labor than the normal working-age population ratio. The delayed retirement policy has a more immediate impact on the supply and transfer of rural surplus labor than the three-child policy. Additionally, delayed retirement can offset the negative impact of the reduced relative surplus labor supply caused by the three-child policy, although the three-child policy could increase the future absolute surplus labor supply.

Date: 2024-09, Revised 2024-10
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