Words that Move Markets- Quantifying the Impact of RBI's Monetary Policy Communications on Indian Financial Market

Rohit Kumar, Sourabh Bikas Paul and Nikita Singh

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Abstract: We analyze the impact of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy communications on Indian financial market from April 2014 to June 2024 using advanced natural language processing techniques. Employing BERTopic for topic modeling and a fine-tuned RoBERTa model for sentiment analysis, we assess how variations in sentiment across different economic topics affect the stock market. Our findings indicate that dovish sentiment generally leads to declines in equity markets, particularly in topics related to the interest rate policy framework and economic growth, suggesting that market participants interpret dovish language as signaling economic weakness rather than policy easing. Conversely, dovish sentiment regarding foreign exchange reserves management has a positive impact on equity market. These results highlight the importance of topic-specific communication strategies for central banks in emerging markets.

Date: 2024-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-big, nep-cba, nep-fdg and nep-mon
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