Coping with the Dunkelflaute: Power system implications of variable renewable energy droughts in Europe

Martin Kittel, Alexander Roth and Wolf-Peter Schill

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Abstract: Coping with prolonged periods of low availability of wind and solar power, also referred to as renewable energy droughts or "Dunkelflaute", emerges as a key challenge for realizing decarbonized energy systems based on renewable energy sources. Here we investigate the role of long-duration electricity storage and geographical balancing in dealing with such events, combining a time series analysis of renewable availability with power sector modeling of 35 historical weather years. We find that extreme droughts define long-duration storage operation and investment. Assuming policy-relevant interconnection, we find 351 TWh long-duration storage capacity or 7% of yearly electricity demand optimal to deal with the most extreme event in Europe. While nuclear power can partially reduce storage needs, the storage-mitigating effect of fossil backup plants in combination with carbon removal is limited. Policymakers and system planners should prepare for a rapid expansion of long-duration storage to safeguard the renewable energy transition in Europe.

Date: 2024-11, Revised 2025-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-reg
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