Can They Compete? Cost Competitiveness of Non-Light-Water Reactors for Heat and Power Supply in a Decarbonized European Energy System

Alexander Wimmers, Fanny B\"ose and Leonard G\"oke

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Abstract: Recent pledges to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050 suggest a "nuclear renaissance," bolstered by unconventional reactor concepts such as sodium-cooled fast reactors, high-temperature reactors, and molten salt reactors. These technologies claim to address the challenges of today's high-capacity light-water reactors, i.e., cost overruns, delays, and social acceptance, while also offering additional non-electrical applications. However, this analysis reveals that none of these concepts currently meet the prerequisites of affordability, competitiveness, or commercial availability. Our cost analysis reveals optimistic FOAK cost assumptions of 5,623 to 9,511 USD per kW, and NOAK cost projections as low as 1,476 USD per kW. At FOAK cost, the applied energy system model for Europe in 2040 includes no nuclear power capacity, and thus indicates that significant cost reductions would be required for these technologies to contribute to energy system decarbonization. In lower-cost scenarios, reactors capable of producing high and medium temperature heat compete with other technologies and dominate the system once costs fall below 5,000 USD per kW. Electricity shares reach current levels of approx. 20% once costs are reduced to 3,000 USD per kW or less We conclude that, for reactor capacities to increase significantly, a focus on certain technology lines and streamlined regulation in necessary. Further remaining technological challenges, e.g., new waste streams, must be resolved.

Date: 2024-12, Revised 2025-12
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