European Defence Readiness

d'Artis Kancs

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Europe's defence readiness is being tested by a deteriorating security environment, prolonged war on the continent and growing uncertainty over the future security environment. Against this background, the EU's White Paper for European Defence - Readiness 2030 identifies critical capability gaps, fragmentation of the European defence market and constraints on military mobility. This study assesses two dimensions of European defence readiness empirically: mobilisation readiness and whole-of-society resilience. The current-readiness assessment reveals substantial weaknesses in defence-industrial mobilisation relative to a 1990 readiness benchmark, particularly in production capacity, market fragmentation and security of supply. Whole-of-society resilience is stronger overall but highly heterogeneous across European allies, with the Nordic countries displaying comparatively high levels of preparedness and resilience. To examine how these vulnerabilities evolve under deteriorating external conditions, the study complements the current-readiness assessment with a forward-looking scenario analysis of a hypothetical 'total trade war' involving a complete cessation of trade with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. The simulations show that such a systemic shock would amplify existing weaknesses in both defence-industrial production and economic resilience. Comparing alternative adjustment trajectories indicates that early and gradual de-risking from vulnerable foreign-input dependencies can substantially reduce adjustment costs relative to abrupt decoupling triggered by geopolitical events. The results therefore suggest that preparedness depends not only on increasing current capabilities, but also on reducing structural vulnerabilities before a systemic shock occurs.

Date: 2024-12, Revised 2026-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec
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