Technological Innovation and Bursting Bubbles

Tomohiro Hirano, Keiichi Kishi and Alexis Akira Toda

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We present a macro-finance model with innovation and knowledge spillover. Skilled agents engage in R&D activities (establish firms) or work in the knowledge-intensive sector. Unskilled agents work in the traditional sector. Knowledge spillover from innovations to the two sectors is initially high and uneven (unbalanced growth), but eventually weakens and equalizes (balanced growth). A rational stock bubble (prices exceed fundamentals) necessarily emerges, even though it is expected to burst with regime switching. Despite the inevitable collapse, stock bubbles and technological innovation reinforce each other and lead to permanently higher output and wages because technologies developed during the bubble era prevail.

Date: 2025-01, Revised 2025-08
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