Quantitative Theory of Money or Prices? A Historical, Theoretical, and Econometric Analysis

Jose Mauricio Gomez Julian

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This research studies the relation between money and prices and its practical implications analyzing quarterly data from United States (1959-2022), Canada (1961-2022), United Kingdom (1986-2022), and Brazil (1996-2022). The historical, logical, and econometric consistency of the logical core of the two main theories of money is analyzed using objective bayesian and frequentist machine learning models, bayesian regularized artificial neural networks, and ensemble learning. It is concluded that money is not neutral at any time horizon and that, despite money is ultimately subordinated to prices, there is a reciprocal influence over time between money and prices which constitute a complex system. Non-neutrality is transmitted through aggregate demand and is based on the exchange value of money as a monetary unit.

Date: 2025-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-cmp, nep-his, nep-mon and nep-pay
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2501.14623

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