Fiscal Policy and Household Savings in Central Europe (Poland, Croatia, and Slovak Republic) -- A Markov Switching VAR with Covid Shock

Tuhin G M Al Mamun, Ehsanullah, Md Sharif Hassan, Mohd Faizal Yusof, Md Aminul Islam and Naharin Binte Rab

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This study investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policies on household consumption, disposable income, and the propensity to consume during the COVID-19 pandemic across Croatia, Slovakia, and Poland. The purpose is to assess how variations in government debt, expenditures, revenue, and subsidies influenced household financial behaviors in response to economic shocks. Using a Markov Switching VAR model across three regimes: initial impact, peak crisis, and recovery.This analysis captures changes in household consumption, disposable income, and consumption propensities under different fiscal policy measures. The findings reveal that the Slovak Republic exhibited the highest fiscal effectiveness, demonstrating effective government policies that stimulated consumer spending and supported household income during the pandemic. Croatia also showed positive outcomes, particularly in terms of income, although rising government debt posed challenges to overall effectiveness. Conversely, Poland faced significant obstacles, with its fiscal measures leading to lower consumption and income outcomes, indicating limited policy efficacy. Conclusions emphasize the importance of tailored fiscal measures, as their effectiveness varied across countries and economic contexts. Recommendations include reinforcing consumption-supportive policies, particularly during crisis periods, to stabilize income and consumption expectations. This study underscores the significance of targeted fiscal actions in promoting household resilience and economic stability, as exemplified by the successful approach taken by the Slovak Republic.

Date: 2025-02, Revised 2025-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.14041 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2502.14041

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().