Assessing provincial carbon budgets for residential buildings to advance net-zero ambitions

Hong Yuan, Minda Ma, Nan Zhou, Zhili Ma and Chunbo Zhang

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Assessing provincial carbon budgets for residential building operations is a crucial strategy for advancing China's net-zero ambitions. This study develops an advanced assessment framework that integrates static and dynamic modeling to evaluate emission pathways and carbon budgets for residential buildings at the provincial level. The framework provides a practical tool for generating robust carbon budget estimates with limited data, thereby enhancing its applicability for policy-oriented planning. Findings show that (1) in the business-as-usual scenario, the emissions for urban and rural residential buildings are projected to peak at 990 (+-0.7) and 450 (+-0.2) mega-tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), respectively, with peak years occurring in 2031 (+-4.7) and 2026 (+-2.6). (2) In the decarbonization scenario, peak emissions decrease to 900 MtCO2 and 430 MtCO2 for urban and rural buildings, respectively. (3) The provinces with the highest emission reduction requirements are Henan (16.74 MtCO2), Xinjiang (12.59 MtCO2), Gansu (9.87 MtCO2), Hebei (8.46 MtCO2), and Guangdong (3.37 MtCO2), with Northwest China shouldering the greatest reduction responsibility, totaling 38.14 MtCO2. In conclusion, this study provides a dynamically optimized carbon budget assessment tool for residential buildings, offering valuable insights for government policy-making and playing a key role in facilitating the low-carbon transition of China's building sector during the pre-2030 planning period, ultimately contributing to the goal of achieving net-zero emissions in the building sector by mid-century.

Date: 2025-03, Revised 2025-10
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