Breaking the Trend: How to Avoid Cherry-Picked Signals

Sebastien Valeyre

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Our empirical results, illustrated in Fig.5, show an impressive fit with the pretty complex theoritical Sharpe formula of a Trend following strategy depending on the parameter of the signal, which was derived by Grebenkov and Serror (2014). That empirical fit convinces us that a mean-reversion process with only one time scale is enough to model, in a pretty precise way, the reality of the trend-following mechanism at the average scale of CTAs and as a consequence, using only one simple EMA, appears optimal to capture the trend. As a consequence, using a complex basket of different complex indicators as signal, do not seem to be so rational or optimal and exposes to the risk of cherry-picking.

Date: 2025-04, Revised 2025-05
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