Strategic Effort and Non-Linear Positional Bandwagon Drafting Benefits in Multi-Stage Competitive Games: Evidence from Triathlon

Felix Reichel

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper examines strategic effort and positioning choices in finite multistage games These choices can generate positional bandwagon drafting benefits through externalities when athletes follow others trajectories Focusing on open-water swim drafting where athletes reduce drag by swimming directly behind peers its performance effects on final race outcomes are estimated through an estimated structural framework with endogenous positioning choices and predetermined effort Leveraging exogenous variation from COVID19 drafting bans in Austrian triathlons which altered start procedures and disrupted standard group formations a panel leave-one-out group ability instrumental variables strategy is applied to isolate the causal nonlinear effect of positional drafting. Restricted sample and pooled positional drafting benefits IV estimates reveal nonlinear concave gains in small groups each deeper drafting position improves finishing rank by over 30 with diminishing returns in larger groups.

Date: 2025-05, Revised 2026-07
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