Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation

Hayato Kanayama, Sho Miyaji and Suguru Otani

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Abstract: How labor markets adjust immediately after minimum wage hikes remains an open, policy-relevant question. This paper studies short-run minimum-wage effects in Japan's spot labor market using Timee data and a wage-bin difference-in-differences design. We find a 2\% employment decline in affected bins, driven by reduced vacancy creation rather than worker supply. Effects are more negative where the minimum-wage bite is higher and in low-wage occupations. Using job descriptions and amenity information, we document reallocation across job types: postings shift toward greater amenity provision and experienced-worker targeting, while female-targeted descriptions become less common, suggesting short-run labor-demand adjustments may foreshadow longer-run reallocation.

Date: 2025-05, Revised 2026-03
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