Simulating Macroeconomic Expectations using LLM Agents

Jianhao Lin, Lexuan Sun and Yixin Yan

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We introduce a novel framework for simulating macroeconomic expectations using LLM Agents. By constructing LLM Agents equipped with various functional modules, we replicate three representative survey experiments involving several expectations across different types of economic agents. Our results show that although the expectations simulated by LLM Agents are more homogeneous than those of humans, they consistently outperform LLMs relying simply on prompt engineering, and possess human-like mental mechanisms. Evaluation reveals that these capabilities stem from the contributions of their components, offering guidelines for their architectural design. Our approach complements traditional methods and provides new insights into AI behavioral science in macroeconomic research

Date: 2025-05, Revised 2025-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-cmp, nep-exp and nep-mac
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