Asymmetric price adjustment over the business cycle

Daniel Levy (), Haipeng, Chen, Sourav Ray, Elliot Charette, Xiao Ling, Weihong Zhao, Mark Bergen and Avichai Snir
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Haipeng: Allan

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Abstract: Studies of micro-level price datasets find more frequent small price increases than decreases, which can be explained by consumer inattention because time-constrained shoppers might ignore small price changes. Recent empirical studies of the link between shopping behavior and price attention over the business cycle find that consumers are more attentive to prices during economic downturns, and less attentive during economic booms. These two sets of findings have a testable implication. The asymmetry in small price changes should vary over the business cycle. It should diminish during recessions and strengthen during expansions. We test this prediction using a large US store-level dataset with more than 98 million weekly price observations for the years 1989-1997, which includes an 8-month recession period, as defined by the NBER. We compare price adjustments between periods of recession - high unemployment, and expansion - low unemployment. Focusing on small price changes, we find, consistent with our hypothesis, that there is a greater asymmetry in small price changes during periods of low unemployment compared to the periods of high unemployment, implying that firms price-setting behavior varies over the business cycle.

Date: 2025-06
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Published in Economics Letters (Forthcoming), 2025

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http://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.10640 Latest version (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: Asymmetric Price Adjustment over the Business Cycle (2025)
Working Paper: Asymmetric price adjustment over the business cycle (2025)
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