Suspense and Surprise in European Football

Raphael Flepp, Tim Pawlowski and Travis Richardson

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We propose utilizing match-level suspense and surprise - which capture the entertainment utility created by competitive balance and outcome uncertainty for sports spectators - as alternative policy targets for league organizers and managers. Through simulations, we derive a benchmark range for suspense and surprise based on a perfectly balanced match before analyzing over 25,000 men's matches (2010/11-2023/24) and 725 women's matches (2023/24) from Europe's top football leagues. Our findings reveal that an average match generates lower suspense compared to the benchmark range, particularly for top teams, while surprise values consistently align with the benchmark. Moreover, we observe nuanced trends over time in men's football and highlight notable differences across leagues and clubs in both men's and women's competitions. These insights enhance our understanding of how the attractiveness of matches arises from competitive balance and carry important policy implications.

Date: 2025-06
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