Finding good bets in the lottery, and why you shouldn't take them

Aaron Abrams and Skip Garibaldi

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Abstract: We give a criterion under which the expected return on a ticket for certain large lotteries is positive. In this circumstance, we use elementary portfolio analysis to show that an optimal investment strategy includes a very small allocation for such tickets.

Date: 2025-06
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Published in American Mathematical Monthly, vol. 117 no. 1 (2010), pp. 3-26

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