Unbiased Rough Integrators and No Free Lunch in Rough-Path-Based Market Models

Tomoyuki Ichiba and Qijin Shi

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Built to generalise classical stochastic calculus, rough path theory provides a natural and pathwise framework to model continuous non-semimartingale assets. This paper investigates the capacity of this framework to support frictionless continuous No-Free-Lunch markets \`a la Kreps-Yan. We establish a "Rough Kreps-Yan" theorem, which links a No Controlled Free Lunch (NCFL) condition to the unbiasedness of the driver of the price process as a rough integrator. The central work of this paper is a classification of these unbiased rough integrators with respect to different classes of controlled paths as integrands, under some assumptions. As the admissible strategies are enlarged from Markovian-type portfolios to signature-type and adaptedly scaled signature-type portfolios, the admissible random rough paths collapse first to Gaussian-Hermite rough paths, and ultimately to the It\^o rough path lift of a standard Brownian motion, up to a time change. Notably, simple strategies do not appear in the theory. This implies that within our framework, continuous frictionless markets based on rough path theory are inevitably constrained to the classical semimartingale paradigm, clarifying the limits of this approach. Our framework covers $\alpha-$H\"older continuous rough paths for $\alpha>0$ arbitrarily small in the tensor algebra setting.

Date: 2025-09, Revised 2026-05
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