Modeling ROI in Chronic Disease Management, A Simulation-Based Framework Integrating Patient Adherence and Policy Timing

Jinho Cha, Eunchan D. Cha, Emily Yoo and Hyoshin Song

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Abstract: Background: Chronic diseases impose a sustained burden on healthcare systems through progressive deterioration and long-term costs. Although adherence-enhancing interventions are widely promoted, their return on investment (ROI) remains uncertain, particularly under heterogeneous patient behavior and socioeconomic variation. Methods: We developed a simulation-based framework integrating disease progression, time-varying adherence, and policy timing. Cumulative healthcare costs were modeled over a 10-year horizon using continuous-time stochastic formulations calibrated with Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data stratified by income. ROI was estimated across adherence gains (delta) and policy costs (gamma). Results: Early and adaptive interventions yielded the highest ROI by sustaining adherence and slowing progression. ROI exceeded 20 percent when delta >= 0.20 and gamma

Date: 2025-10
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2510.06379

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