Short-Run Multi-Outcome Effects of Nightlife Regulation in San Juan

Jorge A. Arroyo

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: I evaluate San Juan, Puerto Rico's late-night alcohol sales ordinance using a multi-outcome synthetic control that pools economic and public-safety series. I show that a common-weight estimator clarifies mechanisms under low-rank outcome structure. I find economically meaningful reallocations in targeted sectors -- restaurants and bars, gasoline and convenience, and hospitality employment -- while late-night public disorder arrests and violent crime show no clear departures from pre-policy trends. The short post-policy window and small donor pool limit statistical power; joint conformal and permutation tests do not reject the null at conventional thresholds. I therefore emphasize effect magnitudes, temporal persistence, and pre-trend fit over formal significance. Code and diagnostics are available for replication.

Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-law
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