A Theory of Saving under Risk Preference Dynamics

Qingyin Ma, Xinxi Song and Alexis Akira Toda

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Empirical evidence shows that wealthy households have substantially higher saving rates and markedly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC) than other groups. Existing theory cannot account for this pattern without jointly imposing restrictive assumptions on returns, discounting, and preferences. In this paper, we develop a general theory of optimal savings with preference shocks and identify a novel mechanism through which stochastic risk preferences reshape the asymptotic consumption and saving behavior. Specifically, the mere possibility of becoming less risk averse next period raises the value of carrying wealth forward, since future selves may be more willing to convert wealth into consumption. Unlike the classical precautionary saving motive, which typically arises from resource risks and weakens as wealth increases, this force remains operative even at arbitrarily high wealth levels, generating a persistent incentive to defer consumption and driving the asymptotic MPC to zero (i.e., a 100% asymptotic saving rate). As a result, vanishing MPCs emerge as a generic implication of risk preference dynamics, rather than an artifact of restrictive assumptions, offering a theoretically robust and empirically consistent account of the persistently high saving rates and low MPCs observed among wealthy households.

Date: 2025-11, Revised 2026-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg and nep-upt
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