Measuring economic outlook in the news

Elliot Beck, Franziska Eckert, Linus K\"uhne, Helge Liebert and Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We develop a resource-efficient methodology for measuring economic outlook in news text that combines document embeddings with synthetic training data generated by large language models. Applied to 27 million news articles, the resulting indicator significantly improves GDP growth forecast accuracy and captures sentiment shifts weeks before official releases, proving particularly valuable during crises. The indicator outperforms both survey-based benchmarks and traditional dictionary methods and is interpretable, allowing identification of specific drivers of economic sentiment. Our approach addresses key institutional constraints: it performs sentiment classification locally, enabling analysis of proprietary news content without transmission to external services while requiring minimal computational resources compared to direct LLM classification. The methodology generalizes to other countries and restricted data environments.

Date: 2025-11, Revised 2025-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-big, nep-cmp and nep-for
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