Election and Subjective Well-Being:Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Dongyoung Kim, Young-Il Albert Kim and Haedong Aiden Rho

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on mental-health and life-satisfaction outcomes through a regression discontinuity design. Following the resolution of electoral uncertainty on election day, we find a sharp and persistent post-election decline in subjective well-being, concentrated among female, non-White, urban, and more-educated respondents. These findings reveal an expected-outcome shock, showing that political polarization itself, not electoral surprise, can act as a chronic psychological stressor.

Date: 2025-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hap and nep-pol
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2511.04912

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