An Empirical Assessment of the Accounting Semi-Identity Problem's Pervasiveness and Severity

F. Javier S\'anchez-Vidal

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper investigates a fundamental methodological flaw in the investment-cash flow sensitivity model of Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen (1988). The model comes from a full accounting identity in which some components are missing, generating what I term an Accounting Semi-Identity, that mechanically links investment and cash flow, and this could bias coefficients, making the estimation difficult if not impossible. I propose an augmented specification including a variable that captures this arithmetic bias and test it across multiple firm-level databases. Results show that the ASI distortion is universal and severe: the ASI issue is present in 100% of the databases and explains more than 83% of the total explained variance, while the standard Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen (1988) model only accounts for approximately 17%. These findings suggest that a substantial body of prior empirical research based on this model may have reported spurious results rather than evidence of underlying economic behavior. This finding provides a compelling explanation for the substantial body of literature surrounding this model that has reported anomalous and incoherent results.

Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-acc
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