Assessment of loan losses after default

Pomazanov Mikhail

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: The paper shows how to determine the loss on an LGD borrower's loan after default, with or without preparation of a separate model. LGD after default is estimated taking into account the average repayment period of the defaulted loan, knowledge of volumes, moments of default and repayments, the rate or other parameters in the vector of determinants. The calculation of the average repayment period for overdue loans is given in the article. A Bayesian scheme is used to estimate repayable debts, considering the percentage of repayment. A general recovery model was used for the LGD segment recovery process. Only this type of model allows you to set LGD less than or equal to 1, which is required for further estimates.

Date: 2025-11, Revised 2026-04
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