Informative Risk Measures in the Banking Industry: A Proposal based on the Magnitude-Propensity Approach

Michele Bonollo, Martino Grasselli, Gianmarco Mori and Havva Nilsu Oz

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Despite decades of research in risk management, most of the literature has focused on scalar risk measures (like e.g. Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall). While such scalar measures provide compact and tractable summaries, they provide a poor informative value as they miss the intrinsic multivariate nature of risk.To contribute to a paradigmatic enhancement, and building on recent theoretical work by Faugeras and Pag\'es (2024), we propose a novel multivariate representation of risk that better reflects the structure of potential portfolio losses, while maintaining desirable properties of interpretability and analytical coherence. The proposed framework extends the classical frequency-severity approach and provides a more comprehensive characterization of extreme events. Several empirical applications based on real-world data demonstrate the feasibility, robustness and practical relevance of the methodology, suggesting its potential for both regulatory and managerial applications.

Date: 2025-11
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