The Hidden Geometry of Global Aid: How Money Moves Through 10 Million Transactions

Paul X. McCarthy, Xian Gong, Marian-Andrei Rizoiu and Paolo Boldi

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Abstract: International aid is usually described as flows between countries, hiding the organisations money passes through. We reconstruct global aid's organisational network from 10.9 million International Aid Transparency Initiative records, tracing over one million payments worth about US\$1 trillion between 22,773 organisations. First, centrality, measured as how far a funder's money can travel downstream, is not size. Relative to their number of partners, giant bilateral donors (USAID, UK FCDO) are only as central as expected, while the most central positions belong to foundations (Gates, Hewlett), research organisations (ODI, University of Oxford) and delivery contractors (Mott MacDonald). Second, principal component analysis of eleven flow measures separates organisations along three lines: whether they mainly give or receive, how much money flows in, and how reliant they are on few partners. Humanitarian organisations emerge from the flows alone, tending to handle larger inflows. Third, almost all organisations form one connected network, yet money moves down long, one-way chains. Among five comparison networks, aid most resembles international banking, with a few large hubs feeding many small players, but has far fewer loops and is more strictly top-down. This suggests a system with little redundancy, where losing a major funder or intermediary could cut off organisations downstream, a pressing question after recent donor cuts.

Date: 2025-12, Revised 2026-10
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