The Emergency-Care Consequences of Disrupted Prevention: Evidence from Mammography Screening Pathway

Moslem Rashidi, Luke B. Connelly and Gianluca Fiorentini

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Abstract: Do disruptions to organized preventive-care pathways increase the likelihood of downstream overnight emergency hospitalizations? We study this question using the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. Using SHARE Wave~9 data on women aged 50--69 in eight European countries, we instrument for mammography uptake -- an observable indicator of access to organized preventive-care pathways -- with the interaction between country-level pandemic restriction intensity and SHARE interview-month cohort. This variation is plausibly exogenous because fieldwork timing shifted the portion of the 2020 restriction period that fell within each respondent's two-year recall window, generating differential disruption to screening access across cohorts within countries. The OLS estimates are close to zero, consistent with selection based on health status. However, the IV results imply that mammography uptake reduces the probability of overnight emergency hospitalization by approximately 6 percentage points among compliers. LIML produces a statistically significant estimate of $-0.114$. Women aged 70 and above, who are outside organized screening programs in all eight countries, show no first-stage and no reduced-form evidence of an effect on overnight emergency hospitalization. A decomposition exercise confirms that the breast-cancer detection channel accounts for at most 6 percent of the estimate, pointing instead to broader preventive-pathway disruption.

Date: 2025-12, Revised 2026-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eur and nep-hea
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