Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases -- OPTiMEM and the Heat Conjecture(s)

Brian P. Hanley, Pieter Tans, Edward A. G. Schuur, Geoffrey Gardiner and Adam Smith
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Brian P. Hanley: Butterfly Sciences
Pieter Tans: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder
Edward A. G. Schuur: Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University
Geoffrey Gardiner: London Institute of Banking and Finance
Adam Smith: Climate Central

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Abstract: Despite well-meaning scenarios that propose global CO2 emissions will decline presented in every IPCC report since 1988, the trend of global CO2 increase continues without significant change. Even if any individual nation manages to flatten its emissions, what matters is the trajectory of the globe. Together the gulf between climate science and climate economics, plus the urgent need for alternative methods of estimation, provided the incentives for development of our Ocean-Heat-Content (OHC) Physics and Time Macro Economic Model (OPTiMEM) system. To link NOAA damages to climate required creating a carbon consumption model to drive a physics model of climate. How fast could carbon be burned and how much coal, oil and natural gas was reasonably available? A carbon model driving climate meant burning the carbon, and modelling how the earth heated up. We developed this using the most recent best greenhouse gas equations and production models for CO2, CH4, N2O, and halogenated gases. This developed an ocean heat content model for the globe. Each step is validated against Known carbon consumption, CO2, temperature, and ocean heat content. This allows a physics founded model of climate costs to be projected.

Date: 2025-12
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