Sign Accuracy, Mean-Squared Error and the Rate of Zero Crossings: a Generalized Forecast Approach

Marc Wildi

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Forecasting entails a complex estimation challenge, as it requires balancing multiple, often conflicting, priorities and objectives. Traditional forecast optimization criteria typically focus on a single metric -- such as minimizing the mean squared error (MSE) -- which may overlook other important aspects of predictive performance. In response, we introduce a novel approach called the Smooth Sign Accuracy (SSA) framework, which simultaneously considers sign accuracy, MSE, and the frequency of sign changes in the predictor. This addresses a fundamental trade-off (the so-called accuracy-smoothness (AS) dilemma) in prediction. The SSA criterion thus enables the integration of various design objectives related to AS forecasting performance, effectively generalizing conventional MSE-based metrics. We further extend this methodology to accommodate non-stationary, integrated processes, with particular emphasis on controlling the predictor's monotonicity. Moreover, we demonstrate the broad applicability of our approach through an application to, and customization of, established business cycle analysis tools, highlighting its versatility across diverse forecasting contexts.

Date: 2026-01
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