Evaluating Impacts of Traffic Regulations in Complex Mobility Systems Using Scenario-Based Simulations

Arianna Burzacchi and Marco Pistore

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Urban traffic regulation policies are increasingly used to address congestion, emissions, and accessibility in cities, yet their impacts are difficult to assess due to the socio-technical complexity of urban mobility systems. Recent advances in data availability and computational power enable new forms of model-driven, simulation-based decision support for transportation policy design. This paper proposes a novel simulation paradigm for the ex-ante evaluation of both direct impacts (e.g., traffic conditions, modal shift, emissions) and indirect impacts spanning transportation-related effects, social equity, and economic accessibility. The approach integrates a multi-layer urban mobility model combining a physical layer of networks, flows, and emissions with a social layer capturing behavioral responses and adaptation to policy changes. Real-world data are used to instantiate the current "as-is" scenario, while policy alternatives and behavioral assumptions are encoded as model parameters to generate multiple "what-if" scenarios. The framework supports systematic comparison across scenarios by analyzing variations in simulated outcomes induced by policy interventions. The proposed approach is illustrated through a case study aims to assess the impacts of the introduction of broad urban traffic restriction schemes. Results demonstrate the framework's ability to explore alternative regulatory designs and user responses, supporting informed and anticipatory evaluation of urban traffic policies.

Date: 2026-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.07735 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2601.07735

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().