Do Whitepaper Claims Predict Market Behavior? Evidence from Cryptocurrency Factor Analysis

Murad Farzulla

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This study investigates whether cryptocurrency whitepaper narratives align with empirically observed market factor structure. We construct a pipeline combining zero-shot NLP classification of 38 whitepapers across 10 semantic categories with CP tensor decomposition of hourly market data (49 assets, 17,543 timestamps). Using Procrustes rotation and Tucker's congruence coefficient (phi), we find weak alignment between claims and market statistics (phi = 0.246, p = 0.339) and between claims and latent factors (phi = 0.058, p = 0.751). A methodological validation comparison (statistics versus factors, both derived from market data) achieves significance (p

Date: 2026-01, Revised 2026-02
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