Distributed Causality in the SDG Network: Evidence from Panel VAR and Conditional Independence Analysis

Md Muhtasim Munif Fahim, Md Jahid Hasan Imran, Luknath Debnath, Tonmoy Shill, Md. Naim Molla, Ehsanul Bashar Pranto, Md Shafin Sanyan Saad and Md Rezaul Karim

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Abstract: The achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is dependent upon strategic resource distribution. We propose a causal discovery framework using Panel Vector Autoregression, along with both country-specific fixed effects and PCMCI+ conditional independence testing on 168 countries (2000-2025) to develop the first complete causal architecture of SDG dependencies. Utilizing 8 strategically chosen SDGs, we identify a distributed causal network (i.e., no single 'hub' SDG), with 10 statistically significant Granger-causal relationships identified as 11 unique direct effects. Education to Inequality is identified as the most statistically significant direct relationship (r = -0.599; p

Date: 2026-01
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