Non-standard analysis for coherent risk estimation: hyperfinite representations, discrete Kusuoka formulae, and plug-in asymptotics

Tomasz Kania

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We develop a non-standard analysis framework for coherent risk measures and their finite-sample analogues, coherent risk estimators, building on recent work of Aichele, Cialenco, Jelito, and Pitera. Coherent risk measures on $L^\infty$ are realised as standard parts of internal support functionals on Loeb probability spaces, and coherent risk estimators arise as finite-grid restrictions. Our main results are: (i) a hyperfinite robust representation theorem that yields, as finite shadows, the robust representation results for coherent risk estimators; (ii) a discrete Kusuoka representation for law-invariant coherent risk estimators as suprema of mixtures of discrete expected shortfalls on $\{k/n:k=1,\ldots,n\}$; (iii) uniform almost sure consistency (with an explicit rate) for canonical spectral plug-in estimators over Lipschitz spectral classes; (iv) a Kusuoka-type plug-in consistency theorem under tightness and uniform estimation assumptions; (v) bootstrap validity for spectral plug-in estimators via an NSA reformulation of the functional delta method (under standard smoothness assumptions on $F_X$); and (vi) asymptotic normality obtained through a hyperfinite central limit theorem. The hyperfinite viewpoint provides a transparent probability-to-statistics dictionary: applying a risk measure to a law corresponds to evaluating an internal functional on a hyperfinite empirical measure and taking the standard part. We include a standardd self-contained introduction to the required non-standard tools.

Date: 2026-01
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