Skill Substitution, Expectations, and the Business Cycle

Andreas Leibing ()

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper studies how labor market conditions around high school graduation affect postsecondary skill investments. Using administrative data on more than six million German graduates from 1995-2018, and exploiting deviations from secular state-specific trends, I document procyclical college enrollment. Cyclical increases in unemployment reduce enrollment at traditional universities and shift graduates toward vocational colleges and apprenticeships.

Date: 2026-02, Revised 2026-07
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.02483 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Skill Substitution, Expectations, and the Business Cycle (2026)
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