Identification of Child Penalties

Dor Leventer

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper formalizes the identification framework underlying common child penalty triple difference estimators that normalize by counterfactual earnings. I reverse-engineer the assumption underlying the validation test: parallel-trend violations, divided by counterfactual earnings, are equal between genders, a framework I term Normalized Triple Differences (NTD). Under NTD, however, I find that the conventional estimator does not identify its target causal estimand. I show that the effect of parenthood on the gender earnings ratio is point identified under NTD. Using the new estimator on Israeli administrative data, I find heterogeneous contributions of parenthood to gender earnings inequality across treatment groups.

Date: 2026-02, Revised 2026-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-ecm, nep-gen and nep-lab
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