Complexity and Misspecification

Drew Fudenberg and Florian Mudekereza

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We propose a tractable model of repeated decision problems that combines concern about model misspecification, as in robust control, with a complexity cost, such as Shannon entropy, that makes pessimistic beliefs trade off statistical plausibility against simplicity. In a static setting, stronger complexity aversion selects more concentrated worst-case beliefs and tilts choice toward actions whose adverse scenarios are harder to summarize with a simple narrative. In a dynamic learning environment, complexity aversion can eliminate the endogenous cycles generated by misspecification concerns alone. We use the model to explain scale heterogeneity in discrete choice, probability neglect, and home bias.

Date: 2026-02, Revised 2026-06
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