How do standard time series forecasting benchmarks translate to finance? A broad study of risk adjusted performance

Adir Saly-Kaufmann, Kieran Wood, Jan-Peter Calliess and Stefan Zohren

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Abstract: Forecasting financial asset returns is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios, non-stationarity and heavy-tailed distributions. We benchmark 16 deep learning architectures for time series forecasting, including Transformers, State Space Models (SSMs), xLSTMs and recurrent hybrids, on a 15-year daily futures dataset using an end-to-end volatility-targeted Sharpe ratio optimisation task. Our results challenge prevailing assumptions in the literature. Several widely used 'state-of-the-art' architectures, including generic Transformers and SSMs, underperformed a simple AR(1) benchmark in a realistic financial forecasting task. The strongest results came from comparatively simple hybrid approaches using recurrent structures: a Variable Selection Network combined with an LSTM achieved the highest Sharpe ratio, while xLSTM showed the greatest robustness to transaction costs. These findings suggest that success on standard time-series benchmarks does not reliably transfer to finance, and that architectures tailored to the unique properties of asset returns may remain more effective than generic attention-based approaches for financial forecasting.

Date: 2026-03, Revised 2026-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-for and nep-rmg
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