Does the Market Anticipate? Can it? Should it?

Kangda Ken Wren

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: A nuance to 'no arbitrage' is studied: it can be suboptimal to act upon an arbitrage immediately; in such cases optimised trading can suppress the anticipation of predictable risk-outcomes, creating an apparent Status Quo Bias. This is shown for asset-pricing under model- or event-risk. Unlike standard treatments, we allow pre-horizon revelations of risk-outcomes; the associated technical challenges are addressed through results from the weak viability and (in)side-information literature. The conflict between 'anticipation', 'no arbitrage' and 'information efficiency', and the competition between the 'signal-to-noise of data' and the 'inference-free risk-premium drift', are exposed.

Date: 2026-03, Revised 2026-11
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