Joint Exclusivity

Nawaf Mohammed

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We introduce \emph{joint exclusivity} (JE), a relaxation of mutual exclusivity (ME) for non-negative random vectors that forbids only the simultaneous positivity of all $n$ components. Whereas ME requires the probabilities of positive outcomes to sum to at most one, a JE random vector with prescribed marginals $F_1,\ldots,F_n$ exists if and only if $$ \sum_{i=1}^n \overline{F}_i(0)\le n-1. $$ An inclusion--exclusion identity shows that JE laws are determined by their $(n-1)$-dimensional margins and decomposes aggregate stop-loss premiums into those of sub-portfolios. A single wrap-around construction attains the existence bound, minimises the number of claims in convex order and, in frequency--severity models with exchangeable severities, the aggregate loss, extending the safest-dependence property of ME beyond its admissible range. We develop canonical and distortion-based constructions, an $m$-exclusivity hierarchy between ME and JE, and admissibility criteria for general families of claim patterns, explicit for hierarchical caps. Finally, we identify the most dangerous exclusive structure in convex order for lines sharing a severity law, which yields sharp stop-loss and Tail Value-at-Risk bounds.

Date: 2026-04, Revised 2026-10
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