Identifying dynamical network markers of financial market instability

Mariko I. Ito, Hiroyuki Hasada, Yudai Honma, Takaaki Ohnishi, Tsutomu Watanabe and Kazuyuki Aihara

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Market instability has been extensively studied using mathematical approaches to characterize complex trading dynamics and detect structural change points. This study explores the potential for early warning of market instability by applying the Dynamical Network Marker (DNM) theory to order placement and execution data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. DNM theory identifies indicators associated with critical slowing down -- a precursor to critical transitions -- in high-dimensional systems of many interacting elements. In this study, market participants are identified using virtual server IDs from the trading system, and multivariate time series representing their trading activities are constructed. This framework treats each participant as an interacting element, thereby enabling the application of DNM theory to the resulting time series. The results suggest that early warning signals of large price movements can be detected on a daily time scale. These findings highlight the potential to develop practical DNM-based early-warning systems for large price movements by further refining forecasting horizons and integrating multiple time series capturing different aspects of trading behavior.

Date: 2026-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-net
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2604.21297

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