The Anatomy of a Decentralized Prediction Market: Microstructure Evidence from the Polymarket Order Book

Philipp D. Dubach

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We study the microstructure of Polymarket, the largest on-chain prediction market, using a continuous tick-level archive of the public order-book feed (30 billion events over 52 days) joined to the authoritative on-chain trade record. On a pre-registered stratified panel of 600 markets we report eight stylized facts: a longshot spread premium; a depth profile closer to uniform than to top-of-book; a null block-clock alignment effect; broad maker-wallet diversity with a concentrated tail; category-conditional effective-spread differences; a sub-50 ms median archive-ingestion delay with a multi-second tail; a self-counterparty wash share with median 1% and a 22% upper tail (well below Cong et al. 2023's 25-70% for unregulated crypto venues -- a sanity bound, not an apples-to-apples reference); and a cross-sectional depth profile explained by market duration, price level, and volume, with no residual time-to-close effect. The paper also contributes a measurement result: trade direction inferred from Polymarket's public order-book feed agrees with on-chain ground truth on only ~59% of buckets (panel mean 0.615, 95% CI [0.58, 0.65]), well below the ~80% Lee-Ready accuracy on Nasdaq. The effective half-spread changes sign between feed- and on-chain trade directions on 67%/50% of markets across two 7-day windows; Kyle's lambda on 60%/43%. Microstructure work on Polymarket therefore needs to source trade direction from on-chain OrderFilled events; we release a replication package that performs the join.

Date: 2026-04, Revised 2026-05
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