Fill-Side Non-Retail Trading on Polymarket: An Empirical Study of Behavioral Tiers and Microstructure Signatures Under Quote-Attribution Constraints

Maksym Nechepurenko

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Prediction markets cannot exist without market makers, arbitrageurs, and other non-retail liquidity providers, yet the supply-side microstructure of Polymarket-class venues has not been characterized at on-chain pseudonymous-address scale. This paper studies non-retail participation on Polymarket using an empirical run on the PMXT v2 archive over 2026-04-21 through 2026-04-27 (13,356,931 OrderFilled events; 77,204 addresses with five+ fills; 43,116 markets). We report three findings. First, Polymarket's off-chain CLOB architecture renders address-level quote-lifecycle attribution permanently unavailable: OrderPlaced and OrderCancelled events are off-chain and absent from public archives, so quote-intensity, two-sided-ratio, and posted-spread features cannot be built at address level. We document this as a structural validity-gate failure (G-QUOTE-LIFE universal fail) and restrict analysis to a six-feature fill-side vector. Second, density-based clustering (DBSCAN, fifteen sensitivity configurations) on the fill-side vector produces a single dense cluster with zero noise: fill-side behavior in the empirical window is uni-modal under the six-feature vector, contradicting the pre-registered hypothesis of four-to-five separable archetypes. Third, robust retail vs non-retail separation is achievable through clustering-independent feature-tier stratification: whale-tier, high-frequency-operator, and power-trader tiers jointly hold 81.4% of total notional across 12.6% of addresses. Address-level market-making and liquidity-provision claims are withdrawn per the G-QUOTE-LIFE failure; spoof-by-non-fill manipulation detection is downgraded to market-level book diagnostics. A privacy-respecting derived-dataset deposit accompanies the paper as Bundle 3 of the PMXT family. Fourth paper in a four-paper programme on event-linked perpetuals and leveraged prediction-market microstructure.

Date: 2026-05
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