Entropy-Regularized Certainty-Equivalent Bellman Policies for Risk-Sensitive Market Making

Tenghan Zhong

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We study a finite-inventory risk-sensitive market making problem in which a dealer controls bid and ask quotes, faces Brownian midprice risk, and receives liquidity-taking orders through point processes with quote-dependent intensities. The objective is the certainty equivalent induced by exponential utility with terminal and running inventory penalties. We introduce an exact discrete entropy-regularized Bellman operator that applies log-sum-exp regularization to deterministic-action certainty-equivalent scores, rather than to a risk-neutral one-step reward. This distinction is essential because the exponential certainty equivalent does not commute with quote randomization. For time step \(h\) and entropy parameter \(\lambda\), we prove uniform convergence to the unregularized continuous-time risk-sensitive value at rate \[ O\bigl(h+\lambda(1+|\log\lambda|)\bigr). \] We also prove certainty-equivalent performance bounds for the induced Gibbs policies under a fresh-sampling relaxed implementation, in which quote marks are sampled at potential fill events rather than frozen over a time step. Under a quadratic growth condition on the Hamiltonian in the relevant quote coordinates, these policies concentrate around the unregularized optimal quote set. Finally, we show that a lower-cost Hamiltonian-Gibbs proxy satisfies a certainty-equivalent performance bound of the same order as the exact Bellman Gibbs policy. Numerical experiments in an Avellaneda--Stoikov specification support the predicted scaling for discretization error, entropy bias, policy gap, quote concentration, and exact-versus-proxy consistency.

Date: 2026-05
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