Global Science Sustains U.S. Innovation

Christopher R. Esposito

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Like physical products, new technologies are developed using globally sourced inputs. Yet while the supply chains behind physical goods are well understood, we know far less about the international supply chain of scientific knowledge that powers U.S. innovation, or how vulnerable it may be to disruption. Here, I uncover this supply chain by tracing multi-generational citation paths connecting NSF-funded research to downstream patents, and stress-test it by simulating barriers to scientific knowledge flows across the U.S. border. The U.S. knowledge supply chain extends globally, and frictions impeding the movement of ideas across the U.S. border reduce its connectivity, extend its length, and lower innovation productivity. These impacts extend to technology areas deemed critical to national priorities by U.S. Congress, including Semiconductors, Quantum Science, and AI.

Date: 2026-05, Revised 2026-06
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